Ukraine is headed toward victory.
At least that’s the opinion of a growing number of Western officials, analysts, and media.
And, of course, Ukrainian officials, As the war in Ukraine heads into its fifth summer, many experts have become increasingly confident that Ukraine has not just seized the initiative, but victory itself.
As Patrick Tucker, science and technology editor for the U.S.defense outlet Defense One, puts it, “Ukraine isn’t just surviving its grueling war with Russia, it is in some ways thriving and may even be on a path to victory.
” But is that accurate? In previous years, we’ve seen similar rounds of optimism about Ukraine’s prospects that turned out to be obviously premature.
For example, during Ukraine’s counter-offensive in Kharkiv oblast in 2022, at the onset of its 2023 counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, during its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in 2024, and during the fuel crisis inside Russia caused by Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure during the summer of 2025.
In each of those cases, Ukraine’s advantage turned out to be temporary, and in the case of the 2023 counter-offensive and Kursk incursion eventually turned into heavy defeats.
But this time might be different.
Ukraine has upped the ante significantly in recent months and unleashed something so advanced that it might signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the war is over, and not in his favor.
We’re talking something totally sci-fi: Humanoid battle robots.
Now, we know that drones have made a big impact on the battlefield.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have dramatically increased the number and range of their medium- and long-range missile and drone strikes inside Russia.
A flurry of advanced new weapons systems has entered the fray, with more being introduced all the time.
And the results appear to justify the confidence in Ukraine’s prospects.
Ukraine is now striking critical Russian military and energy infrastructure and key logistics routes daily.
Its new range of medium-range strike drones, like the Hornet, has turned the key “Novorossiya” highway into a road of death.
The highway is the main artery linking occupied Crimea with the Russian mainland through the occupied oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
Ukrainian strikes have left dozens of Russian military vehicles, fuel tankers, and other vehicles burnt out along the road, along with gas stations, railway infrastructure, and bridges.
As a result, Crimea is currently undergoing a severe fuel crisis.
Residents have been restricted to 20 liters of fuel per day, with massive queues forming as Crimeans struggle to get their hands on the precious liquid.
Authorities are also predicting a complete collapse of the summer tourist season, a critical revenue source for the peninsula.
But it could be the prelude to something much more dramatic.
Speculation from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides is growing that these events aren’t just an economic and reputational blow to Russia.
A growing number of analysts now also believe they’re likely set up for a daring Ukrainian attempt to land troops on the peninsula to try and seize some or all of it.
At the same time, Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles are undeniably reaching ever deeper into Russia and hitting important targets with growing frequency.
Oil refineries and storage facilities, key military-industrial production facilities, and poignant cultural centers are all being pummeled.
The increasingly audacious nature of these strikes was vividly illustrated recently in St Petersburg, Russia’s second-most important city.
During the St Petersburg International Economic Forum – Russia’s premier economic gathering, regarded by many as Russia’s “Davos” – Ukraine attacked the city with dozens of drones.
A Russian corvette dubbed the “Boikiy” was hit in a dry-dock in the Kronstadt island port, causing a fire and likely extensive damage.
The St.Petersburg Oil Terminal – one of the largest oil transshipment complexes in northwestern Russia – also went up in flames.
Russian authorities claimed that “debris from a downed enemy drone” caused a major fire, which had claimed the lives of two firefighters.
Plumes of smoke were visible from the conference venue, prompting some Ukrainian and Western observers to claim that the strikes had disrupted the conference.
However, no evidence of any disruption was visible at the event itself.
No running for shelters, no panic, no delayed sessions, nothing.
In fact, the event attracted more than 20,000 participants from 130 countries, challenging claims in the West that the war in Ukraine has “isolated” Russia.
The war has certainly isolated Russia from the West.
But as Putin’s recent high-profile visit to China and the guest-list at the SPIEF indicate, isolation does not extend to the other seven-eighths of the world in any meaningful way.
Indeed, during a plenary session featuring Putin, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud described relations between the two nations as “until death do us part.
” Still, as Tucker writes, “Oil infrastructure deep in Russian territory is no longer safe, giving Kyiv leverage over Moscow’s export revenues.
” As of mid-May 2026, Ukraine’s military had struck Russian oil refineries 158 times in total, including 24 of Russia’s 33 refineries that are capable of processing over 1 million tons of oil per year.
At least 35 of those strikes occurred during 2026, underscoring the increasing frequency and potency of the strikes.
According to Reuters’ sources, virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia have been forced to halt or scale back fuel output as a result, representing roughly a quarter of its total output.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, it hasn’t done as much damage as they had hoped – at least not yet.
Despite the temporary or perhaps permanent shutdown of refineries in Tuapse, Perm, Kirishi, Ryazan, and Saratov, Russia’s oil export revenues have actually been increasing.
In May 2026, the volume of sea deliveries of crude oil from Russia reached an average of 3.
46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 120,000 barrels from 2025.
And this at a time when oil prices have gone through the roof.
Russia has been one of the major beneficiaries of the U.
S.
and Israel’s unprovoked attacks on Iran, which retaliated by shutting down the critical Strait of Hormuz and attacking the energy infrastructure of Gulf States that host U.
S.
military bases.
The result has been a severe supply shock in deliveries of oil and natural gas, causing prices to spike and the U.
S.
to issue temporary waivers on sanctions on Russian oil.
At the SPIEF, Putin also made the point that oil revenues were no longer the driver of Russia’s economy that they once were.
Since 2022, the share of oil and gas revenues has dropped from around 40 percent to 23 percent.
“Although, of course, it is significant […] it would be wrong to say that this is critically important for us,” he said.
It’s also an uncomfortable fact that Ukraine has a long way to go before it causes anywhere near the same kind of damage to Russia’s oil refineries as Russia has wreaked on Ukraine.
Ukraine used to have a thriving oil refining industry of its own, supplying up to half of its gasoline needs.
Not anymore.
Chairman of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, Pavel Kyrylenko, told parliament in March that the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery had completely shut down operations as a result of Russian missile and drone strikes.
Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal added that the refinery had been hit by 69 missiles and around 260 drones.
The refinery was the largest remaining one in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s other major refineries in Lysychansk, Kherson, and Drohobych had previously been destroyed or occupied.
Consequently, Ukraine now relies entirely on imports for its fuel supply, primarily sourcing gasoline and diesel from Poland, Lithuania, Romania, and Greece.
But the damage Ukraine is causing to Russia’s oil industry and revenues is far from the only way in which analysts like Tucker feel the war has shifted decisively in Ukraine’s favor.
They also claim that Ukraine has seized the initiative on the battlefield, thanks largely to what Tucker calls “its fierce focus on AI and robotics.
” Ukraine has developed drones and ground robots that can hold territory— and even take it back.
Ukrainian ground robots reportedly now perform 80 percent of logistics tasks on the front lines, such as carrying explosives into enemy positions and evacuating the wounded.
But they’re increasingly being used in direct combat.
In the summer of 2025, a single remote-controlled Droid TW12.
7 robot equipped with a machine reportedly held its position for 45 days.
According to a 3rd Army Corps spokesperson, the robot and its operator situated some 6.
2 miles away “disrupted every attempted breakthrough and prevented enemy infiltration,” with no loss of Ukrainian life.
But all of that is being taken up a notch (or two or three) with the humanoid battle robots.
Two Phantom MK-1 humanoid robots were reportedly transferred to Ukraine for testing in February 2026.
They were tested mainly for logistics and supply missions in hazardous areas, and according to interestingengineering.
com, “highlighted both the promise and current limitations of the technology.
” The trial reportedly successfully demonstrated the platform’s potential for frontline support roles.
However, the Phantom MK-1 remains far from a battlefield “super soldier,” with a limited payload capacity of around 44 pounds, no waterproofing, and battery endurance insufficient for large-scale operational use.
The U.
S.
manufacturer of the Phantom – Foundation – plans to address these shortcomings with the Phantom 2, which is expected to be sent to Ukraine later in 2026.
The upgraded model will reportedly have “superhuman” capabilities and double the payload capacity of the Phantom MK-1.
Developers are facing similar challenges with all the robotic systems being introduced, but these are steadily being resolved.
But alongside robots, there’s another key technology that’s giving Ukraine the edge on the battlefield and in the skies: AI Ukraine’s military use of AI has evolved from experimental trials to core operational capabilities in 2026, particularly in command and control, autonomous targeting, and swarm coordination.
An increasing number of unmanned systems are controlled in at least some aspects by dozens of AI products, from guidance packages on aerial drones to decision aids at the highest levels.
The most prominent example is the Palantir software suite, specifically the PRISMA platform, which has been deployed within Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, or HUR, and other strike units.
PRISMA aggregates real-time data from thousands of drones, radar intercepts, and satellite imagery into a single operational picture, allowing operators in dispersed bunkers to coordinate mass drone strikes simultaneously.
The system’s algorithms analyze interception points of previous waves, radar coverage zones, and air defense density to calculate optimal flight paths in real time.
It self-learns from every mission, dynamically routing new drones through gaps in Russian defenses that human planners might miss.
It’s been a major factor in the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range strikes.
Another prime example is the TFL-1 module, which can enable a one-way drone to function autonomously after a human has selected its target, reducing its susceptibility to jamming and other defenses.
Its manufacturer, the Ukrainian company The Fourth Law, says TFL-1 makes a drone four times more likely to hit its target.
Ukraine and its partners are also steaming ahead on new concepts for highly autonomous defenses against Russian drones, combining ISR sensors and AI to detect and identify enemy drones in less time and with more certainty.
According to Davyd Aloian, deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, “All of the systems are being linked with each other and with people” to create a distributed network with interceptor drones at various locations to be activated when needed.
[…] One day, we will have only like 10 guys who are just going to be responsible for approving interceptions.
And it will automatically go directly to the target.
” The human operators will be dispersed as well.
“Everything can be controlled from Kyiv, Lviv, from cities in other countries,” he said.
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Now, Ukraine’s willingness and ability to rebuild its doctrine, acquisition, and resupply systems around autonomous warfare hasn’t just given it an edge over the slower-moving Russian military machine.
It also addresses one of the two most critical issues Ukraine is facing: An increasingly critical shortage of manpower on the frontlines.
Russia is estimated to have a 1.
5 to five-to-one advantage, depending on the sector of the frontlines.
What’s more, Russia is still able to attract hundreds of thousands of recruits based on high salaries and other benefits.
By contrast, Ukraine has been forced to engage in a brutal program of forced conscription, nicknamed “busification,” to try to replace its losses.
Hundreds of videos of men being violently bundled into buses by the TCC – Ukraine’s conscription officers – to be sent to the front continue surfacing.
Dire footage released by Ukrainian ombudsman Dymytro Lubinets shows these men being handcuffed to their beds of stairwells at recruitment centers to prevent any attempted escape.
According to Lubinets, the number of complaints to the ombudsman regarding violations of citizens’ rights during mobilization has increased 333-fold compared to 2022.
It’s becoming an increasingly serious issue between the government and the population.
Lubinets says those who can pay their way out are released, while others are mobilized indiscriminately.
More and more videos show the population fighting back, attacking, and chasing off TCC and police officers during busification attempts.
At the same time, about 95,000 Ukrainians of military age have entered Germany since the beginning of 2025, 60 percent of the total number of Ukrainian citizens seeking refuge on German soil.
To make matters worse, in January, newly-appointed Defense Minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov revealed that around 2 million Ukrainians are evading the draft while some 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted their positions without permission.
Ukraine has come under increasing pressure from its backers to lower the conscription age from 25 to 18.
Ukraine has refused so far, justifiably stating that this would risk turning what U.
S.
International Relations professor John Mearsheimer has described as a demographic death-spiral into a demographic death.
Instead, Ukraine is increasing pressure on nations like Poland and Germany to start sending refugees of military age back to Ukraine for conscription.
The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, writes that as a result of Ukraine’s successful mid-range and frontline drone strike campaigns, Putin must now “convince an increasingly tired Russian populace not only to support a fifth year of war but also to accept involuntary mobilization for a war that has already cost Russia well over a million casualties.
” That may be true, but it appears that ship has long since sailed for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and its Western backers are quite happy to fight to the last Ukrainian so long as it weakens Russia.
But the evidence suggests that the Ukrainians themselves are, for the most part, not that keen, to put it mildly.
Now, for all its advances in robotic and unmanned technologies, and for all its many successes in causing severe damage to Russia’s logistics and economy, this shortage of manpower is starting to manifest on the frontlines.
Western sources like the ISW have been claiming for months that despite this disadvantage, Ukraine has seized the initiative on the battlefield and captured more territory than Russia, or at least limited its advances to just a handful of miles.
They claim that Russia’s average monthly gains for the past 12 months were just 108 square miles.
But a closer examination of the key battlefields tells a different story.
Especially where it really counts.
In the Donbas, fighting around Lyman has intensified once again, with both sides battling for advantage along a critical section of the front.
But more importantly, according to a growing number of Ukrainian military sources, parts of the heavily fortified defensive belt in Donetsk oblast are coming under increasing pressure.
And it’s unclear how exactly Ukraine is going to stem the tide.
The critical city of Konstantinovka has been outflanked, with Russian forces now in more or less control of all but the northern portions of the city.
Some 12,000 Ukrainian forces are estimated to be encircled, with many others retreating to the next town in the belt – Druzhkovka.
As Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Mashovets puts it, “As for the further tactical prospects of defending Konstantinovka, they, it seems, are, to put it mildly, very unfavorable for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
” Both Kramatorsk and Slovyansk – the other two cities in this belt – are now well within range of Russian FPV drones and medium-range artillery, with logistics in and out of the cities under constant pressure.
Ukrainian authorities recently ordered the evacuation of large parts of both cities, along with the nearby settlements of Belenkiye, Malotaranovka, and Privolye, underscoring how the situation is deteriorating.
If this fortress belt falls, there is precious little by way of heavy fortifications to prevent the Russians from capturing the remainder of the Donetsk oblast and advancing further.
That’s why Zelensky has been so adamant that he will not concede to Russian demands that peace is only possible if Ukrainian forces leave the Donbas.
But unless something changes dramatically in the coming weeks, he may not have a choice.
Further north, Ukrainian experts are sounding the alarm about the situation in the key Kharkiv oblast logistics hub of Kazachya Lopan.
Experts have warned that the capture of the town would open up a path for Russian troops to the immediate outskirts of Kharkiv itself.
If you listen to Ukrainian military experts and not just government-aligned and Western propaganda, the situation is becoming equally difficult around the key city of Orekhiv in Zaporizhzhia, on the Northern approaches to the city of Sumy, and other directions.
But perhaps the most telling sign that Ukrainian frontline successes are not all that they are being made out to be is the insistence of Zelensky and his key European allies that a unilateral ceasefire along the current frontlines is a prerequisite for a “just and lasting peace.
” You have to look really hard through the annals of military history to find examples where the side that is winning unilaterally decides to cease its advances in favor of the losing side.
Russia has completely rejected the notion of a ceasefire along the current frontlines while Ukraine insists on it.
Make of that what you will.
Meanwhile, experts like Tucker and the ISW continue to downplay sources like the Pentagon Director General’s May 2026 report that throw cold water on the narrative of an impending Ukrainian victory.
The report states that Russia “almost certainly” retains a significant advantage over Ukraine in most key areas.
Tucker swats it aside, writing, “To understand how dramatically Ukraine’s prospects have changed, consider that in March, National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard testified that the U.
S.
intelligence community believed that Russia had the ‘upper hand in the conflict.
” Tucker also seems completely oblivious – whether consciously or not – of the impossible situation Ukraine is facing in another critical area: Air defenses against Russia’s ever-expanding and improving range of ballistic missiles.
The problem seems insurmountable when it comes to the air defense system Ukraine needs most – PAC-3 or PAC-2 missiles for the Patriot system – by far the most effective system against ballistic missiles.
In May, Zelensky penned a lengthy open letter to President Donald Trump, urgently requesting expedited delivery of these missiles.
It seems to have been ignored – at least publicly.
He also requested a license to manufacture them in Ukraine, which also appears to have been ignored if not rebuffed, at least publicly.
He then asked Germany to provide dozens of additional Patriot interceptor missiles from its reserves by the end of the year.
In return, he promised to deliver interceptor drones, which are expected to be produced in the future.
An answer is expected in July.
The problem for Zelensky is that thanks to the war in Ukraine and, more importantly, the U.
S.
battle against Iran, there’s a chronic shortage of these missiles.
And there simply isn’t the production capacity to bridge the gap.
Russia is estimated to produce up to 113 ballistic, aero-ballistic, and hypersonic missiles per month.
Meanwhile, although it has announced plans to drastically ramp up production in the coming years, Lockheed Martin manufactures only about 52 PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles monthly.
So, even if every single one were delivered to Ukraine, it still would not be enough.
Ukraine certainly needs them.
In the aftermath of Ukraine’s cynical strike on a teacher’s training college that left 21 teenage girls dead and dozens more injured, Russia has been steadily intensifying its own drone and missile strikes across Ukraine.
Targets have expanded to include logistics hubs, gas stations, trucks, and warehouses, including those holding food and medical supplies.
And Ukraine seems to be having increasing difficulty in fending them off.
On June 10, for example, Kharkiv mayor Igor Terekhov reported more than 20 strikes with Geran-type drones within the city limits, leaving several massive fires in their wake.
Putin has vowed “systemic strikes” against “decision-making centers,” but it’s clear these strikes are intended to cause as much disruption and unhappiness with their own government amongst the Ukrainian populace.
That’s exactly what Ukraine’s increasing strikes on Russia are intended to achieve – forcing Putin to accept a humiliating defeat.
But there’s very little evidence it’s working.
Putin is indeed under increasing pressure inside Russia, but not to seek an unfavorable peace.
Rather, the vast majority of Russians are demanding ever more vocally that he take off the kid gloves, so to speak, and hit Ukraine much harder.
As he starts obliging, Zelensky has responded by ramping up Ukraine’s long-range strikes inside Russia.
In turn, Russia seems to be taking an increasingly callous view toward Ukrainian civilian casualties, which are mounting quickly.
And Zelensky and Ukraine are doing the same.
Yulia Mendel, Zelensky’s controversial former press secretary who has subsequently fled to the U.
S.
and turned on her ex-boss, recently summed up the risks.
“If Zelensky’s gang does not agree to stop the war this summer, Ukraine will face rivers of blood and a terrible winter.
[…]We will all be told to endure for a few more months.
And once again, they will tell us how Russia is about to collapse right now.
The people who prescribe these messages are not stupid.
They are just sure that we all are stupid,” she said.
Nonetheless, Zelensky, his backers in Europe, and the pro-regime press continue to believe that a devastating defeat for Russia is around the corner.
But what does a Ukrainian victory actually look like? According to Aloian, declaring victory will require more than the cessation of hostilities.
The invading country must be left “much weaker,” so that it can’t re-arm as it did after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, he said.
“Right now, they’re aiming like about 30 percent of their economy for the defense industry,” which is too much, he added.
The fact that Ukraine is already spending 100 percent of government revenues to fund its war, and is entirely dependent on foreign aid and loans to fund salaries, pensions, and all other government expenditure, seems to have escaped him.
Not to mention that, in addition to allocating all government income to the war effort, an additional 90 billion euros (about $140 billion) in EU support is already deemed insufficient.
And the EU doesn’t actually have the money to lend to Ukraine.
It’s using confiscated Russian assets.
The result? Humanitarian aid to Ukraine has declined precipitously as the long-suffering populace needs it most.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, European financial and humanitarian aid allocations dropped to less than one-fifth of the average monthly level seen in 2025 between January and April 2026.
Poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity are rising, even as the population keeps declining and inflation keeps ticking higher.
Alongside a growing number of voices you won’t see in the mainstream media, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has also voiced skepticism about the “Ukraine has turned the tide” narrative.
“I don’t really want to be a mood killer who sits and prevents people from rejoicing.
But first, in November, you and I will return to the narrative about how we all survive the winter.
[…] All the phrases that there was a turning point in the war; Ukraine has turned everything in the opposite direction, and now we will march on the Kremlin – it’s all nonsense.
Well, I understand that for some listeners, this is for their mental state; it’s a very useful story.
” So, who’s deluding themselves – or outright lying? Are the likes of Tucker, the ISW, and Zelensky right? Is Ukraine moving rapidly towards a decisive victory that forces Russia to accept humiliating peace terms and ultimately an internal collapse within Russia? Or are Zelensky and his partners in the EU and UK cynically devastating the Ukrainian people and economy, chasing a pipedream of some kind of Ukrainian “victory”? More pertinently, where are all of Zelensky’s escalations leading? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Russia is the world’s largest nuclear power.
The point of that power is to prevent such a defeat.
So, are the Europeans really willing to risk nuclear attacks and/or a full declaration of war by Russia, involving the mobilization of hundreds of thousands more troops? Would France or the UK really risk trading London or Paris for, say, Dnipro by launching retaliatory nuclear strikes if Russia went as far as a few nuclear strikes? Would their populations allow it in the first place? Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Rada Defense Committee, recently warned about the risks of Russian use of tactical nukes to secure a frontline breakthrough and/or a mass mobilization, and how difficult it would be for Ukraine to counter them.
Time will tell.
In the meantime, take a look into the future with this video about how Russia won’t recover from the war for the next 100 years.
Thanks for watching.
Disclaimer : This content may be created by AI for entertainment purposes. Any resemblance to real persons, events, or places is coincidental.
