For months, Ukraine has been executing a brilliant plan against occupied Crimea.
Middle-strike drones fly non-stop to pelt Russian logistics feeding into the peninsula, and long-range drones strike deep into Crimea itself to shatter the defenses that Russia has built up.
Crimea is being isolated.
Left stranded in a war where it was supposed to be the centerpiece.
And now, Ukraine is preparing for something huge.
Russia knows it.
Putin believes that Ukraine’s D-Day is coming, and Russia’s worst nightmare is going to happen.
The landing operation will be massive.
Any belief Putin had that Crimea was safe has disappeared.
Now, all that Russia can do is desperately try to prepare for what it believes to be inevitable.
And that’s the thing.
As Ukraine keeps its plans for Crimea under wraps, it’s from Russia’s actions that we see Putin’s fear about a possible D-Day taking place.
On June 17, United24 Media reported on comments made by Dmytro Pletnechuk, who is the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy.
He revealed that Russia has started to reinforce its defensive positions along the coastlines and within occupied Crimea.
Why? Putin is terrified that Ukraine is preparing to pull off a counter-invasion to snatch the occupied peninsula away from Russia once and for all, perhaps using an amphibious landing to do the job.
As we speak, what Russia views as the most vulnerable parts of the Crimean coastline are being shored up, Pletenchuk reveals, and he adds that Russia sees the possibility of a landing as a very real issue that needs to be countered.
“In any case, the enemy considers this an absolutely real threat.
The Russians are actively strengthening areas in Crimea vulnerable to landings because they believe in such a possibility,” Pletenchuk said in an interview with The Kyiv Independent.
He also revealed one of the reasons why Russia is so scared of what it believes is coming.
The belief in an amphibious landing hasn’t come out of nowhere.
Ukraine’s Navy has been practicing for just this kind of thing, Pletenchuk claims.
Training is ongoing, and special operations conducted by Ukraine have fed into the Russian fear, as Ukraine’s drones continue a campaign designed to isolate the peninsula and perhaps lay the groundwork for the type of attack that Putin would have never believed could happen when he launched his invasion.
Russia worries that D-Day Part Two is coming.
But why is Russia so scared? Beyond the Ukrainian training we just mentioned, it’s what Russia has been forced to watch happen over the last few months that makes its military high command believe that something massive is heading toward Crimea.
The peninsula is being turned into an island, as Ukraine engages in a non-stop operation to isolate Crimea from all of the logistical arteries that enable Russia to keep it supplied with soldiers and military equipment.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, says that this campaign to divorce Crimea from the occupied territories in Ukraine and the Kerch Bridge that keeps the peninsula connected to Russia is going exactly according to Ukraine’s plan.
This isolation will “turn into an island” the peninsula that Putin stole from Ukraine in 2014, and that “could lead to very unexpected consequences for the Russians,” Euromaidan Press reports Fedorov as claiming during an interview with Ukraine’s PRESSING channel.
As vague as this may sound from Ukraine’s Defense Minister, it’s a warning to Russia.
Does that warning mean an amphibious assault is coming? It’s hard to say.
But what we know for sure is that Ukraine is laying groundwork that could make such an assault possible.
For the past few weeks, Ukraine’s new generation of middle-strike drones has been wreaking havoc on the logistical network that supports Crimea.
Fedorov reveals that the Ukrainian Defense Ministry built up to this campaign of isolation by contracting 300% more middle-strike drones during the first four months of 2026 than it did in all of 2025, though Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says that the number is even higher.
He claims a 500% increase.
Whatever the case may be, May and June have seen this massive increase in middle-strike drones pay dividends against Crimea.
Since the end of May, Ukraine has made the key R-280 highway that connects Russia, southern Ukraine, and Crimea, into an absolute hellscape.
Traffic along that road has decreased by 71% since these strikes began, claims the Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi.
With the R-280 being gradually made useless to Russia, Ukraine has started attacking bridges all over the occupied territories that feed into the peninsula.
A June 9 strike caused the complete suspension of transportation across that bridge, forcing diversions to alternative routes that run through Armiansk and Perekop.
Multiple strikes have been recorded at the bridge that connects Hanichesk and the Arabat Spit, also in Kherson, as have strikes in Armiansk designed to cut off one of the alternative routes that Russia tried to create.
One such strike, carried out ahead of June 11, saw Ukraine take out 50 of the supply trucks and fuel tankers Russia was attempting to send through Armiansk and into Crimea.
And that’s the point.
Cutting off all of these roads stops fuel, food, supplies, and soldiers from getting into Crimea.
None of this is random.
It’s all part of an extremely well-coordinated campaign to cut Crimea off from every territory that allows Russia to sustain its presence on the peninsula.
As United24 Media puts it, Ukraine’s strikes have caused constant disruption to Russia’s Crimean supply lines in a campaign that seemed to have been designed to starve out the Russians occupying the peninsula.
But what if there’s more to it than that? What if Ukraine isn’t just looking to isolate, but it’s preparing an amphibious landing, just as Russia fears? That would explain the defenses, but there’s still the difficult topic of how Ukraine would pull something like this off.
In a moment, we’re going to explore more of Pletenchuk’s comments and what Ukraine might have planned.
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So, an amphibious landing… What would happen if Ukraine attempted its own D-Day in Crimea? We have seen just the smallest of hints of what Ukraine might plan in the past.
Back in August 2023, Ukrainian forces carried out what they dubbed a “special operation” on the Crimean Peninsula.
That operation involved Ukrainian military intelligence, which landed a small contingent of forces in Crimea using waterborne vessels that landed near the settlements of Mayak and Olenivka.
The operation saw Ukraine’s soldiers engage in combat, causing at least 30 Russian casualties and damaging four Russian high-speed boats, before the operatives left the peninsula.
At the time, the operation was significant because it demonstrated that Ukraine was capable of landing soldiers on Crimea.
But now, it might be a blueprint.
Still, this was a very small operation.
It shows us that Ukraine can sneak soldiers into Crimea under the cover of darkness, cause some casualties, and then get out.
If the plan is to gradually send soldiers in to infiltrate, then this might be a workable strategy.
However, the Russian force stationed in Crimea would likely overwhelm such groups if they stick around for too long.
The Crimean Peninsula is about 26,500 square kilometers, which is a fair amount of ground to cover.
It’s more than 5.
5 times the 4,700 square kilometers of Ukraine that the BBC reports Russia stole from Ukraine in 2025, for instance.
It’s also difficult to determine how many soldiers Russia has stationed in Crimea, with the most recent estimates coming from before Putin launched his invasion.
Back in July 2020, Ukrinform reported that Russia had 32,500 soldiers on the peninsula, with 11,500 composing a land force.
The number may be higher now.
Or, given Crimea’s role as a logistical node that funnels troops into occupied Ukraine, it could even be lower.
Still, that’s a lot of soldiers for small groups landing by sea to take on.
A larger landing would be needed for Ukraine to liberate Crimea from Russia completely.
None of this means that Ukraine wouldn’t use small special operations groups like the one we saw in 2023.
Those types of groups could be deployed along the Crimean coast to destroy defenses and create fortifications to prepare for larger groups.
But they wouldn’t be able to take Crimea alone, and Pletenchuk notes that himself.
He says that any D-Day-like landing on Crimea would have to be carried out as part of a much larger and more complex offensive action that likely also focuses on liberating large portions of the southern occupied regions that link to Crimea.
We’ve mentioned D-Day a few times already.
That’s because Pletenchuk made the direct comparison himself when talking about an amphibious landing on Crimea.
So, perhaps we could look to D-Day to give us some insight into what Ukraine would have to pull off to make this type of landing possible.
Specifically, Pletenchuk brings up the storming of Omaha Beach and uses it as an example of the sorts of defenses that Ukraine would face.
Mines in the water and across the coast that Ukraine uses for a landing would have to be navigated, as would ground defenses designed to slow soldiers down, such as barbed wire and trenches.
Machine gun nests and bunkers would also be firing on Ukraine’s soldiers at all times.
Plus, Ukraine attacking from the sea means it’s unlikely to have much in the way of air defenses, allowing Russia’s forces to bring in air support.
Sticking with Omaha Beach, The National World War II Museum says that around 160,000 Allied troops were involved in the D-Day landings, and that 34,000 Americans landed on Omaha.
The entire operation cost the Allies more than 10,300 casualties, 2,400 of which were experienced on Omaha Beach.
But here’s the really important detail – the Allies used 7,000 naval vessels, including around 4,000 landing craft, in the D-Day landings, along with 12,000 aircraft providing support.
If storming Crimea is supposed to look anything like that, then Ukraine has a problem.
Ukraine barely has a navy to speak of.
Global Firepower, which ranks 145 militaries around the world using a special index that assesses everything from manpower to available assets, says that Ukraine’s navy consists of 169 ships, the vast majority of which are patrol vessels.
The same outlet says that Ukraine has 347 aerial assets, so the level of air support seen during D-Day wouldn’t be available to Ukraine if it launches an amphibious invasion against occupied Crimea.
So, the idea is out, right? Not necessarily.
2026 is a long way removed from 1944, and that means Ukraine has opportunities to carry out its attempted landing in a way that’s very different than what we saw at Omaha Beach.
First things first – Ukraine does have to get boots on the ground.
Pletenchuk himself says as much, as he points out that it’s impossible to liberate Crimea without getting soldiers to the peninsula and keeping them there.
However, the thing about D-Day is that it was the largest amphibious landing ever conceived, meaning that much more than Omaha Beach was involved.
The Allies stormed five different beaches as they worked to create a throughline from the sea and deeper into France.
Ukraine doesn’t have to do that, and it’s also looking to retake a peninsula that is far smaller than France.
That plays in Ukraine’s favor.
If the older reports about Russia having about 32,500 soldiers stationed in Crimea hold up, that’s another benefit for Ukraine.
It means that Ukraine doesn’t have to dedicate as massive a force as was required for D-Day.
Plus, Ukraine’s strategy of isolating Crimea means that the soldiers stationed there are being cut off from supplies, and Russia is going to struggle to move reserves into the Peninsula if Ukraine launches an attack.
However, the biggest weapons that Ukraine has for this type of landing are those that don’t require soldiers operating them at all.
Drones.
They change the game.
That air support during D-Day could come from drones in their thousands, rather than aircraft.
Imagine constant waves of middle-strike drones hitting bunkers and machine gun posts.
Flamingo drone-missile hybrids smashing into defenses.
All of this ahead of the Ukrainian soldiers who are landing and attempting to advance.
Ukraine could even coordinate wave after wave of drones ahead of a landing attempt, shattering Russian defenses before any soldiers touch the beaches.
Ukraine has the drones to do it, too.
According to The New York Times, Ukraine is now at the point where it can launch around 5,000 medium and long-range drones per month.
Focusing that firepower on the defenses that Russia is attempting to erect on the Crimean coast could go a long way toward supporting a landing.
Speaking of an amphibious landing, it’s true that Ukraine doesn’t have anywhere near the number of landing vessels needed to make something like Omaha Beach possible.
But what it does have is maritime drones.
And those drones could serve the crucial roles of launching kamikaze attacks against any warships that Russia tries to use to stop Ukraine’s assault.
They could even function in a similar way to take out Russian naval mines, opening up gaps for Ukraine’s few patrol boats and landing vessels to get troops onto the Crimean beaches.
Again, Ukraine has been working on the technology.
The Toloka underwater drone has been developed in Ukraine, and could either work on getting rid of Russia’s mines or pointing kamikaze drones in the right direction.
Ukraine has also developed a drone called the Sea Trident, which carries a 1,000-kilogram warhead that can sink large ships or shatter coastal infrastructure, RBC-Ukraine reports.
What we’re saying here is that Ukraine’s version of D-Day would be very different from what happened in 1944.
Ukraine may be able to set up for landing soldiers by using drones to destroy Russia’s coastal defenses long before those soldiers land on the beaches.
Of course, drones can’t do all of the work.
But the more that they destroy, especially if Crimea is isolated, the weaker the Russian defense against a landing that can’t be conducted at the same scale as the one on Omaha Beach.
Perhaps using drones, the sort of small-scale landings we saw in 2023 might be enough for Ukraine to establish a throughline deeper into Crimea.
Having said that, this is admittedly an optimistic view of how Ukraine could launch an amphibious assault against Crimea.
This is an operation that would be fraught with challenges, and that can’t be ignored.
Rand points out that Crimea has about 750 kilometers of shoreline that Russia can fortify.
While this large coast provides ample opportunities for Ukraine to bring soldiers into the fight, it’s also difficult to cover when Ukraine has limited access to landing ships and airpower.
The likelihood is that Ukraine would attempt to combine an amphibious assault with an attack via land, but that is an approach that is fraught with risk.
Rand points out that Crimea is connected to mainland Ukraine by a single strip of land that is only a few kilometers wide and is likely to be very well fortified by Russia.
Now, Ukraine could consider a two-front attack, especially if it continues its isolation campaign against Crimea.
Yes, the approach would be damaging.
Ukraine would likely lose thousands of soldiers in the process.
But if Russia can’t resupply or get reserves into Crimea, it would become a battle for attrition that Ukraine could, potentially, win.
And with Ukraine reportedly increasing its drone production up to seven million annually in 2026, the drone-heavy approach we discussed for the Crimean coast could be applied to the small strip of land Ukraine’s ground troops would have to navigate to get into Crimea.
Ukraine also appears to be close to pushing Russia out of the Kinburn Spit, which is a small piece of land in the Mykolaiv oblast that juts into the Black Sea and lies west of Crimea.
When Russia took that spit, it used the land to launch drones into Ukraine.
Retaking the Kinburn Spit could allow Ukraine to do the same against Crimea, further weakening Russia’s isolated Crimean defenses.
Still, there’s no denying a simple fact: An amphibious assault, or a combined amphibious and ground assault, against Crimea will put thousands of Ukrainian troops in the Russian firing line.
It would also require Ukraine to place most of its focus on the assault, which could lead to weaknesses elsewhere, such as in the Donbas region that Putin is trying to take in Russia’s spring and summer offensive.
We’re not saying that retaking Crimea in the way that Russia worries Ukraine might try isn’t possible.
It just might not be prudent.
Especially when Ukraine can follow a different strategy.
That campaign of isolation that could set up for an amphibious landing could instead serve as a sort of blockade against Crimea.
Ukraine has already battered the Black Sea Fleet so badly that it has been forced to withdraw from its Crimean base, and the attacks on logistical arteries are cutting off fuel and supplies to the point where we’re seeing shortages of both already arising on the peninsula.
Ukraine has already turned Crimea into an island, as Fedorov claims, and it’s an island that is surrounded by war.
Maybe the best strategy is to keep doing what it’s doing, hitting Crimea and the surrounding regions from afar, with the goal being to make life on the peninsula so hellish for the Russian occupiers that they want to leave.
Forcing a withdrawal could be the best method that Ukraine has.
And it’s something that Ukraine clearly has in mind.
There has to be a reason why Ukraine hasn’t destroyed the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia, and it’s likely to ensure that Russia’s soldiers and people have an escape route available from Crimea.
Whatever approach Ukraine takes, Russia is clearly worried.
It wouldn’t be shoring up its coastal defenses if it didn’t think an amphibious assault was at least possible.
But for Ukraine, such an assault comes with risk, however mitigated that risk might be when drones enter the equation.
So, perhaps it’s a case of waiting Russia out.
Keep Crimea isolated, make holding the peninsula untenable, and then conduct a landing that looks less like D-Day and more like a triumphant military arriving to claim what it has already won.
Only time will tell what Ukraine does next.
For now, Ukraine will happily keep Russia guessing and panicking in Crimea.
The Kinburn Spit could well be the key to retaking Crimea.
We mentioned earlier that Russian forces are withdrawing from that scrap of land, and we dug deeper into what’s happening and why in another video.
The retreat is chaotic.
The potential ramifications are massive.
You can find out about both, and much more, if you check out our coverage.
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